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Quantitative Risk Advisory

This is the Advisory Sessions for Quantitative Risk Analysis QSRA and QCRA

QRM Advisory Sessions · Alternate Tuesdays · Live

Bring the number you have to defend.

A fortnightly working session where practitioners put a real model, a real register or a real risk report in front of a specialist and leave knowing exactly what to change. Not a course. Your project, examined.

Alternate Tuesdays · 16:00 to 17:00 UK 60 minutes · online, 19:00 GST Recorded · replay included
JOIN – £49 PER MONTH SEE THE ANNUAL PASS

Cancel any time. No minimum term on the monthly option.

Approved Saudi Aramco vendor ADNOC approved consultant 15+ years applied practice
Quantitative schedule risk analysis output. Cumulative probability S-curve showing P50, P80 and P90 completion dates with recommended contingency.
The number that has to survive the room. Sessions work on real project output, not worked examples.

The problem

Most quantitative risk work does not fail when it is built. It fails the first time somebody senior questions it.

You can run the simulation. You can produce the S-curve. The difficulty starts when a project director asks why the P80 moved, where the correlation assumption came from, or why the register that drives the model contains twenty items that cannot be quantified at all. That conversation happens alone, usually the day before a gate.

The register that cannot be modelled

Risk statements written as topics, not as cause, event and consequence. Nothing in them can be given a range, so the model gets built on the estimator's opinion instead.

The model nobody can defend

Distributions chosen by habit. Correlation left at zero. Merge bias unexamined. The output is arithmetically correct and analytically indefensible.

The report that changes no decision

Twelve charts, no recommendation. Senior management reads it, thanks you, and carries on with the deterministic date.

What this actually is

One artefact. Examined properly. In front of you.

Each session takes live work from the people in the room. You submit one thing you are stuck on. It goes on screen, gets pulled apart, and gets rebuilt with you watching the reasoning, not just the result.

What gets worked

  • A risk register that will not survive quantification review
  • A QSRA or QCRA model whose output you cannot explain
  • A three-point estimate set built on the wrong distributions
  • A correlation structure you inherited and do not trust
  • A report or S-curve that is not landing with senior management
  • A challenge you are about to receive and want to rehearse first

What this is not

  • A lecture. There is no slide deck waiting for you.
  • Software training. Tools appear only where the problem needs them.
  • A beginner course. It assumes you already build this work.
  • A place to outsource your analysis. You still do the work.
  • A networking group with a webinar attached.

How it runs

Four steps, every fortnight.

01

Submit before the session

Send one artefact and one question at least 48 hours ahead. Files are handled under NDA and never shown outside the session.

02

The queue is set

Submissions are ordered so the session covers different failure modes rather than the same problem three times.

03

Worked live

Your artefact goes on screen. The reasoning is spoken out loud, including what would be challenged and how you answer it.

04

Written note after

Recording plus a short written note of what to change, sent within 48 hours. Both stay in your library for as long as you hold the pass.

JOIN – £49 PER MONTH

Alternate Tuesdays, 16:00 to 17:00 UK time. Next session: Tuesday 18 August

Who is running the room

Sessions are run against published standards, not opinion.

IQRM publishes the standards its own work is held to. When your register or model is reviewed in a session, it is reviewed against these, and you can read them before you join.

Quantification Readiness Standard · v1.0

Whether a register can be quantified at all

The test applied to every risk statement before it is allowed anywhere near a Monte Carlo model. Most registers fail on first pass. The standard says exactly why and what to rewrite.

Risk Data Engine · v1.0

Where defensible ranges come from

The method for turning project data and structured elicitation into distributions that hold up under challenge, instead of triangular by default.

Approved Saudi Aramco vendor ADNOC approved consultant 15+ years applied practice Oil and gas · EPC · infrastructure

Access

Two ways in.

Same sessions, same access. The annual pass exists because most employers approve one invoice more easily than a recurring card payment.

Monthly

£49 / month

Two live sessions each month. Cancel any time.

  • Two fortnightly live sessions per month
  • Submit one artefact per session
  • Recording and written note after each
  • Access to both published standards
START MONTHLY – £49
Best value

Annual pass

£399 / year

All 26 sessions for the year, under £16 a session. One invoice, employer fundable.

  • 26 live sessions across the year
  • Priority in the submission queue
  • Full session archive, not just your own
  • Recording and written note after each
  • Access to both published standards
  • Single invoice for procurement or L&D budget
TAKE THE ANNUAL PASS – £399

Paying monthly for a full year costs £588. The annual pass is £399, so a year of sessions costs less than a single day of external training.

Need a quotation on letterhead for your employer? Email rs@iqrm.net.

Questions

Before you join.

Do I need to have completed an IQRM programme first?
No. The sessions are open to anyone already doing the work. They assume you build or review risk registers, schedules, cost estimates or risk models as part of your role. If you have never built one, start with a programme instead and join the sessions afterwards.
What if my project data is confidential?
Most of it is. Submissions are handled under NDA, and you are free to anonymise activity names, scope descriptions and currency values before sending. The method being examined does not depend on knowing your client. Nothing from a session is published or reused.
What if my problem is not reached in the session?
The queue carries over to the next session, and annual pass holders take priority. You also keep the recording of every session, including the ones where somebody else's problem was worked, which is usually where most of the learning sits.
Which software is used?
Whatever the problem needs. Sessions have used Safran Risk, Primavera P6, and Excel. The sessions are about the reasoning behind the model, not about which buttons to press, so bring your artefact in whatever form it exists.
Can I attend if the time zone does not work?
Sessions run on alternate Tuesdays, 16:00 to 17:00 UK time, which is 19:00 to 20:00 Gulf Standard Time. If that does not work, every session is recorded and released with a written note within 48 hours, and you can submit an artefact and a question without attending live. You lose the back and forth, so attend live where you can.
Can my employer pay for this?
The annual pass exists for exactly that. It is a single invoice, which is far easier to route through procurement or a training budget than a recurring card payment. Email rs@iqrm.net and a quotation on letterhead will be issued.
Is this consulting?
No. Sessions review your work and tell you what to change. They do not produce your deliverable, and no output from a session should be presented as an independent IQRM review. If you need a formal model review or a QSRA delivered, that is a separate advisory engagement.

Next session · Tuesday 18 August · 16:00 UK

Risk may or may not happen. The challenge to your number is already scheduled.

Come with one artefact and one question. Leave knowing what to change and how to defend it.

TAKE THE ANNUAL PASS – £399 START MONTHLY – £49

Institute of Qualified Risk Managers · rs@iqrm.net

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